My crystal ball: no iPad cannibalization of Mac sales
TweetFollow Us on Twitter

My crystal ball: no iPad cannibalization of Mac sales


In a note to clients -- as reported by "AppleInsider" (http://www.appleinsider.com) -- BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman said he expects Apple to post a "significant miss"for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 as Mac sales continue to be cannibalized by the company's iPad tablet line. I have to disagree.

Despite raising sales estimates for both the iPhone and iPad, Bachman said the June quarter and upcoming final fiscal quarter of 2012 will be "challenging" for Apple as the tech company Apple could see an US$5.5 billion miss from the $38.5 billion consensus for the company's fourth fiscal quarter ending in September if its third quarter performance is in line with the current $37.5 billion forecast, according to historical patterns and outlooks.

Bachman says his Mac sales estimate is expected to drop 1.6 million units over the same six quarter period. He dropped his Mac sales estimate from 18.65 million units to 18.22 million for 2012 and sees that decline carrying over into 2013 which slipped to 20.18 million from 21.38 million.

"Net, we are lowering our Mac forecast by 1.6 million units over the next six quarters," Bachman says."We think strong iPad demand is negatively affecting Mac sales, despite the recent MacBook refresh. For the next six Qs, we reduced our Mac sales by 40% of the increase in iPad sales."

Yours Truly expects Mac sales to dip a bit in the just-ended June quarter because no new desktops or laptops were released, not due to any iPad cannibalization. Bachman says he expects said cannibalization to "continue." As far as I can tell, there's been no discernible decline in Mac sales due to the tablet, so there's no cannibalization to continue.

New MacBook Pros -- including the Retina display model -- and MacBook Airs were announced at the Apple Worldwide Developer Conference on June 11. However, by the time they went on sale it was too late to have much impact on the June quarter. 

This fiscal quarter will be a different story. New laptop sales will move a significant number of new Mac units, especially if the rumored 13-inch Retina display MacBook Pro appears soon.

Over the next 6-12 months, look for a Retina display iMac and a seriously revamped Mac Pro. These will further fuel Mac sales.

My forecast: Mac sales of 18.75 million units for 2012 and 23 million for 2013. At least.

-- Dennis Sellers

 
AAPL
$118.93
Apple Inc.
-0.07
GOOG
$541.83
Google Inc.
+1.46
MSFT
$47.81
Microsoft Corpora
+0.06
MacNews Search:
Community Search:

Latest Forum Discussions

See All
view counter

view counter
view counter
view counter
view counter
view counter
view counter

Mystery Case Files: Dire Grove, Sacred G...
Mystery Case Files: Dire Grove, Sacred Grove HD Review By Jennifer Allen on November 28th, 2014 Our Rating: iPad Only App - Designed for the iPad A decent new installment for the popular Mystery Case Files series.   | Read more »
Castaway Paradise – Tips, Tricks, and St...
Ahoy there, castaways: Were you curious about our own thoughts regarding this pristine shipwreck? Check out our Castaway Paradise review! Castaway Paradise is out for iOS, finally giving mobile gamers the opportunity to enjoy the idyllic lifestyle of an Animal Crossing-like game. Though it may seem straightforward, these tips will go a long way... | Read more »
Castaway Paradise VIP Subs are on Sale f...
Castaway Paradise VIP Subs are on Sale for a Limited Time, and a Special Holiday Update is Coming Soon Posted by Rob Rich on November 28th, 2014 [ | Read more »
Primitive Review
Primitive Review By Jordan Minor on November 28th, 2014 Our Rating: :: FOLK ARTUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad True to its name, Primitive is about as straightforward as runners get.   | Read more »
7 tips to get ahead of the competition i...
7 tips to get ahead of the competition in Dynasty of Dungeons Posted by Simon Reed on November 28th, 2014 [ permalink ] Playcrab has launched their action-packed new dungeon crawler, Dynasty of Dungeons, today. | Read more »
Master of Tea Kung Fu Review
Master of Tea Kung Fu Review By Jordan Minor on November 28th, 2014 Our Rating: :: ONE DROP RULESUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Master of Tea Kung Fu is a creative and complex caffeinated brawler.   | Read more »
Monster Strike Review
Monster Strike Review By Campbell Bird on November 28th, 2014 Our Rating: :: BILLIARD STRATEGYUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Collect monsters and battle by flinging them across the battlefield in this strangely compelling strategy game.   | Read more »
Proun+ Review
Proun+ Review By Jennifer Allen on November 28th, 2014 Our Rating: :: TWITCHY RACINGUniversal App - Designed for iPhone and iPad Twitchy racing aplenty in Proun+, an enjoyably tricky title.   | Read more »
Lucha Amigos (Games)
Lucha Amigos 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $1.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: Forget Ninja Turtles, and meet Wrestlers Turtles! Crazier, Spicier and…Bouncier!Sling carapaces of 7 Luchadores to knock all your enemies out! | Read more »
Record of Agarest War Zero (Games)
Record of Agarest War Zero 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $7.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: HyperDevbox Holiday Turkey Black Friday Special Pricing!To celebrate the opening of the holiday season HyperDevbox is announcing a special price on their newest title Record of Agarest Zero. Now, for a limited time... | Read more »
All contents are Copyright 1984-2010 by Xplain Corporation. All rights reserved. Theme designed by Icreon.