My crystal ball: no iPad cannibalization of Mac sales
TweetFollow Us on Twitter

My crystal ball: no iPad cannibalization of Mac sales


In a note to clients -- as reported by "AppleInsider" (http://www.appleinsider.com) -- BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman said he expects Apple to post a "significant miss"for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 as Mac sales continue to be cannibalized by the company's iPad tablet line. I have to disagree.

Despite raising sales estimates for both the iPhone and iPad, Bachman said the June quarter and upcoming final fiscal quarter of 2012 will be "challenging" for Apple as the tech company Apple could see an US$5.5 billion miss from the $38.5 billion consensus for the company's fourth fiscal quarter ending in September if its third quarter performance is in line with the current $37.5 billion forecast, according to historical patterns and outlooks.

Bachman says his Mac sales estimate is expected to drop 1.6 million units over the same six quarter period. He dropped his Mac sales estimate from 18.65 million units to 18.22 million for 2012 and sees that decline carrying over into 2013 which slipped to 20.18 million from 21.38 million.

"Net, we are lowering our Mac forecast by 1.6 million units over the next six quarters," Bachman says."We think strong iPad demand is negatively affecting Mac sales, despite the recent MacBook refresh. For the next six Qs, we reduced our Mac sales by 40% of the increase in iPad sales."

Yours Truly expects Mac sales to dip a bit in the just-ended June quarter because no new desktops or laptops were released, not due to any iPad cannibalization. Bachman says he expects said cannibalization to "continue." As far as I can tell, there's been no discernible decline in Mac sales due to the tablet, so there's no cannibalization to continue.

New MacBook Pros -- including the Retina display model -- and MacBook Airs were announced at the Apple Worldwide Developer Conference on June 11. However, by the time they went on sale it was too late to have much impact on the June quarter. 

This fiscal quarter will be a different story. New laptop sales will move a significant number of new Mac units, especially if the rumored 13-inch Retina display MacBook Pro appears soon.

Over the next 6-12 months, look for a Retina display iMac and a seriously revamped Mac Pro. These will further fuel Mac sales.

My forecast: Mac sales of 18.75 million units for 2012 and 23 million for 2013. At least.

-- Dennis Sellers

 
Community Search:
MacNews Search:
See All
view counter

view counter
view counter
view counter
view counter
view counter
view counter

Gordon Ramsay DASH: Guide to upgrading a...
If we've learned anything about celebrity chef Gordon Ramsay over the years, it's that you don't want him angry and breathing down your neck. He's not above calling you out on TV, making a mockery of your efforts in the kitchen in front of millions of people. [Read more] | Read more »
Galaxy of Trian (Games)
Galaxy of Trian 1.1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $6.99, Version: 1.1.0 (iTunes) Description: Galaxy of Trian is an exciting, fast paced digital board game based on the highly acclaimed tabletop title. | Read more »
Dead In Bermuda (Games)
Dead In Bermuda 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $4.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: | Read more »
The Little Fox (Games)
The Little Fox 1.0.1 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $2.99, Version: 1.0.1 (iTunes) Description: The Little Fox is an alternative perspective on the world-renowned ‘fairy tale for adults', The Little Prince by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, where the Fox takes the place of the protagonist – a charming little character with... | Read more »
5 popular free fertility apps
There was a good article this week in The Independent about how more women are using fertility appsas a de facto form of contraception. It's apparently not working too well, leading to numerous unwanted pregnancies. [Read more] | Read more »
How to get more cars in CSR Racing 2
NaturalMotion and Zynga brought a lot of real life cars to the table for CSR Racing 2. From souped up everyday rides made by Nissan and Hyundai to supercars produced by the likes of McLaren and Pagani, there really is something for everyone. [Read more] | Read more »
Crypt of the NecroDancer Pocket Edition...
Crypt of the NecroDancer Pocket Edition 1.0 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $4.99, Version: 1.0 (iTunes) Description: Crypt of the NecroDancer is an award winning hardcore roguelike rhythm game. Move to the music and deliver beatdowns to the beat! Groove to the epic Danny Baranowsky soundtrack, or easily select songs... | Read more »
Gear-grinding puzzle title Inner Circle...
If you saw our post earlier this month announcing the imminent release of ZPlay’s new creation, Inner Circle, you’ll be happy to know that it’s now available on the App Store. Established in 2010, developer and publisher ZPlay have taken the mobile gaming industry by storm, attracting an impressive collection of over 400 million users to date and... | Read more »
CSR Racing 2: Your guide to what's...
CSR Racing 2, or CSR2, as it likes to call itself, has finally arrived. The follow-up to the immensely popular drag racing game CSR Racing is the first release from NaturalMotion since the studio's acquisition by Zynga in early 2014. [Read more] | Read more »
Nanuleu (Games)
Nanuleu 1.1 Device: iOS Universal Category: Games Price: $2.99, Version: 1.1 (iTunes) Description: Nanuleu is a strategy game where you take control of ancient magical trees that protect the land from an invading dark force.A destructive power is approaching, the ancient trees have sensed it and have awaken from the long sleep. | Read more »
All contents are Copyright 1984-2010 by Xplain Corporation. All rights reserved. Theme designed by Icreon.