Past 90 days --a good quarter for Mac sales

Among respondents who bought a computer over the past 90 days, 23 percent say they bought an Apple laptop and 17 percent a desktop -- down one point and two points, respectively, from the August ChangeWave survey. But while the latest Mac results are down slightly, they’re still quite close to the highs reached in both the research group's July and August surveys -- when the Mac "halo effect" caused by the release of the 3G iPhone was still in effect.

When you look at the July, August and September surveys in combination, the results say that Apple should meet its Mac sales numbers for the July 1-Sept. 30 quarter. However, the outlook for the next 90 days shows a much, much tougher environment going forward, according to the folks at ChangeWave.

Next 90 days -- it’s all about visibility

Why the concern about Apple’s outlook? Among respondents who plan to buy a computer over the next 90 days, just 29 percent say they’ll purchase an Apple laptop -- down a full five points since August. Another 26 percent say they plan to buy a desktop, a four-point decline. These are the weakest looking numbers ChangeWave has seen all year for Apple in terms of future buying -- and the biggest drop in visibility in 2.5 years.

Compounding the matter, overall consumer electronics spending for the next 90 days is registering yet another big slowdown -- just as the crucial holiday season gets underway.

Only 14 percent say they’ll spend more on consumer electronics over the next 90 days compared to 40 percent who say less -- a net seven-point decline just since August, and the weakest 90-day outlook for electronics spending recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Most importantly, overall planned computer buying among consumers remains quite weak. Just eight percent of respondents say they’ll buy laptops in the next 90 days and six percent desktops. That's significantly below ChangeWave's findings from a year ago.

Bittersweet findings  

Despite an already severe 15 month contraction, ChangeWave's latest survey shows U.S. consumer spending has suddenly taken a big turn for the worse.  Better than half of U.S. respondents (52 percent) now say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days. And spending on consumer electronics looks set to take the biggest hit.

Within this environment, ChangeWave's July, August and September survey results measuring the past 90 days show that Apple should meet its Mac sales numbers for the quarter. 

But ChangeWave's September survey results for the next 90 days show Apple has a considerable visibility problem, which represents the real Achilles heel for the company. Bottom line, while Apple’s guidance is normally conservative, ChangeWave expects it to be much more so on Oct. 21 when it provides its Mac sales projections for the holiday season.
Long term, the company still has a tremendous outlook, says ChangeWave. One example, their latest consumer cell phone survey shows the smart phone market thriving, and among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, more than a third (34 percent) say they’ll get an iPhone -- the highest level of smart phone demand in the industry. 

Based on their data, ChangeWave fully expect Apple’s iPhone numbers will beat consensus estimates on Oct. 21. However, Mac sales projections going forward are the number one issue for the company, and that’s where the survey results show Apple is vulnerable.

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