The number of U.S. households subscribing to FTTx will increase from three million in 2007 to 18 million by the end of 2011, according to "FTTx and BPL: Analysis and Outlook," a new report from Parks Associates. The report says fiber subscriptions will join DSL and cable as mainstream broadband access methods over the next five years, driven by aggressive deployment plans from the telcos and increased consumer demand for new data, voice, and video services.

"While fiber is a small percentage of total U.S. broadband household subscriptions today, it will achieve a faster growth rate than what DSL and cable did after their inception," says Chris Roden, research analyst at Parks Associates. "Companies like Verizon and AT&T are hoping to match and surpass the broadband offerings from the cable MSOs, and their bold plans to upgrade their existing copper networks will drive fiber growth. Increasing consumer demand for bundled services such as video-on-demand and IPTV will also fuel the increase in fiber subscriptions."

Why are fiber-optic systems revolutionizing telecommunications? Compared to conventional metal wire (copper wire), optical fibers are:

° Less expensive: several miles of optical cable can be made cheaper than equivalent lengths of copper wire. This saves your provider (cable TV, Internet) and you (well, at least in theory) money.

° Thinner: optical fibers can be drawn to smaller diameters than copper wire.

° Higher carrying capacity: Because optical fibers are thinner than copper wires, more fibers can be bundled into a given-diameter cable than copper wires. This allows more phone lines to go over the same cable or more channels to come through the cable into your cable TV box.

° Less signal degradation: The loss of signal in optical fiber is less than in copper wire.

° Light signals: Unlike electrical signals in copper wires, light signals from one fiber don't interfere with those of other fibers in the same cable. This means clearer phone conversations or TV reception.

° Low power: because signals in optical fibers degrade less, lower-power transmitters can be used instead of the high-voltage electrical transmitters needed for copper wires. Again, this saves your provider money.

° Digital signals: optical fibers are ideally suited for carrying digital information, which is especially useful in computer networks.

° Non-flammable: because no electricity is passed through optical fibers, there is no fire hazard.

° Lightweight: an optical cable weighs less than a comparable copper wire cable. Fiber-optic cables take up less space in the ground.

Then, of course, there's SPEED. With fiber, you get a dedicated data path between two points, and the bandwidth of that data path is limited only by the capabilities of the equipment at either end. Theoretically, there's no limit to the bandwidth of a fiber-optic connection. Using the FTTX technology, it will be possible to  distribute TV, Internet and the phone throughout your house and business easier than you can now. Heck, some South Korean "experts" [url=http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20070228/110336.shtml]have declared[/url] that by 2015, users will be able to have smells delivered to PC-connected devices via broadband. "Smell-o-Vision," anyone?

Both SBC and Verizon announced big residential fiber builds in a variety of markets with more big builds promised to follow. However, due to the cost, don't expect FTTx to pop up everywhere in the near future.

"Ten years ago you were looking at $7,500 per subscriber," says Sayeed Rashid, senior manager of marketing, Alcatel Access Networks, in an [url=http://www.americasnetwork.com/americasnetwork/article/articleDetail.jsp?id=122831]America's Network article[/url]. "Today ...maybe $1,500 on average, though it isn't easy to compute."

Rashid's figure generally represents estimates provided by various analysts, manufacturers, service providers, and builders. "Take $1,800 on the high side, and $1,300 on the low side, and you'll have the range of most of the U.S. installations out there," says Michael Render of Render/Vanderslice, whose firm recently completed a study for the Fiber to the Home Council.

However, others warn that a focus on capital cost can be misleading, and that the falling prices for customer premises equipment and fiber itself may ultimately mean little, notes America's Network. "I take $2,000 per subscriber as a benchmark," adds David Gross, a senior analyst with Communications Reseachers. "And I'm allocating about half of that cost to video equipment. Fiber-to-the-home makes little sense unless the service provider is moving into video, and obtaining video programming. And adding a video capability at the central office is very expensive, with the former representing an ongoing cost. On that basis I'd say that the business case for FTTx is terrible in most cases."

Still, according to Richard Mack, lead analyst for KMI Research, all-optical architectures (that extend fiber all the way to the customers’ building) will serve an increasing percentage of the world’s broadband subscribers through the research group's five-year forecast. For example, in 2005, only seven percent of the world’s broadband subscribers were on FTTx networks, but by 2010, this percentage will have increased to 27 percent. Mack said that there are two contributors to the increasing demand for fiberoptic systems:

1) Service providers already offering ADSL will extend fiber further into their loop plant to support higher speeds. Such “upgrade” FTTx deployments are underway in advanced markets like Canada, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, and the U.S. Many of the carriers that have launched such upgrade projects will accelerate fiberoptic deployments in the next five years – passing or turning-up service in more homes per year.

2) Operators offering broadband access for the first time are using fiber -- either to enter an established market as a new competitor or to benefit from its cost advantages for bandwidth, distance, and density requirements. Examples of new broadband service providers installing FTTx can be found in both advanced telecom markets (N. America, W. Europe, parts of Asia) and in emerging markets (E. Europe, Latin America, Africa, and much of Asia).

China, for example, has a large market for FTTx systems associated with the massive construction projects underway in large, dense metropolitan areas. In Japan, the competition between carriers is a key factor in the widespread use of FTTx. These two markets together represented half the worldwide market for fiberoptic products in broadband access networks in 2005. With Korea, Australia, and several emerging markets, the Asia-Pacific region was 70 percent of the world market. Although Europe and other regions will have faster growth in the next five years, the Asia-Pacific region will remain more than 50 percent of the worldwide market for fiberoptics in FTTx networks through 2010, according to KMI Research.

Doubtless, FTTx technology will continue to spread, though not as fast as some of us would like. It might arrive at my house in time for my great-grandkids to enjoy it. Which is too bad. I wasn't really looking forward to Smell-o-Vision.