This forecast is more optimistic than Gartner's final September forecast, which anticipated a 2% decline in shipments for 2009. "Shipments in the third quarter of 2009 were much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year," says George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. "We're anticipating seasonally modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, but because shipments were so weak in the fourth quarter of 2008, growth will appear quite strong. This could lull vendors and market watchers into thinking the market is recovering faster than it really is."



While computer shipments are now expected to increase in 2009, the market value of computer shipments is still projected to decline. The market value of global computer shipments is now forecast to total $217 billion in 2009, a 10.7% decline from 2008. Gartner is now projecting the market value of computer shipments to reach $222.9 billion in 2010, a 2.6% increase over 2009.



"Blame this year's drop in market value on the unprecedented declines in computer average selling prices (ASPs) we've seen this year," Shiffler says. "The rapid decline in computer ASPs reflects a marked shift towards lower price points as customers have looked for 'good enough' computers at the cheapest price, and vendors have tried to spur market growth by catering to ever-lower price points. We expect computer ASP declines to slow as the market recovers, but given the market's competitive dynamic, we don't see computer ASPs rising any time soon. As a result, growth in the market value of shipments will significantly lag shipment growth next year and beyond."



Gartner analysts reiterated their belief that Windows 7 will have a limited impact on holiday computer sales but noted that 2010 computer shipments could be affected.

"We just don't see consumers buying new computers solely because of Windows 7," Shiffler says. "We are expecting a modest bump in fourth-quarter consumer demand as vendors promote new Windows 7-based computers, but the attraction will be the new computers, not Windows 7. The more critical question is, 'When will businesses make their move to Windows 7, and what will they do about replacements in the interim?' We don't see businesses mainstreaming Windows 7 much before the end of 2010. We think many businesses will try to shift replacements to the back end of next year so as to sync their adoption of Windows 7 with their computer refresh. That will put a damper on early 2010 shipments."



Gartner's new forecast indicates mobile computer shipments are on pace to reach 162 million units in 2009, a 15.4% increase over 2008. In 2010, mobile computer shipments are expected to reach 196.4 million units. Mini-notebook shipments, included in overall mobile computer shipments, are forecast to reach 29 million in 2009 and will grow to 41 million shipments in 2010. Meanwhile, shipments of desk-based computers are expected to total 136.9 million units in 2009, a 9% decline from 2008. In 2010, desk-based computer shipments are forecast to reach 140.2 million units.