"We recognize investors do not see light at the end of the tunnel as market fears appear to be outweighing fundamental analysis," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients as Apple shares slid nearly 18 percent to a 52-week low of US$105.26.

Still, Munster remains upbeat on Apple. He says that, while the consumer market is clearly slowing, Wall Street's models on Apple already account for reduced spending, but at the same time may be over-discounting the company's Mac growth prospects, he said.

The analyst estimates the company to achieve 40 percent Mac growth for the entire 2008 fiscal year, with 16 percent growth in fiscal 2009. He also expects 19 percent growth during the fiscal first quarter of 2009 (Dec.), all of which are above Street estimates.

"Overall, we believe Street models are too low for Mac in fiscal 2009," Munster wrote. "This fear of a Mac slowdown is driven by US durable goods data, and the NPD data point from two weeks ago, suggesting Mac growth has slowed from 43 percent year-over-year in July to 23 percent in August."

Munster also thinks that concerns that Apple will be forced to take a steeper hit on gross margins will also "prove to be overblown." He's modeling the company to guide December quarter margins to come in around 30 to 31 percent, or above its overall fiscal 2009 guidance of 30 percent.

On the other hand, Citigroup analyst Richard Gardner this morning cut his estimates for Apple for this year, 2009, and 2010, and lowered his target price to $170 from $287, reports Barron's. On the other hand,he expects outperformance from Apple next year relative to other computer makers.

Gardner’s revised outlook is for profit of $5.29 on sales of $32.68 billion the fiscal year ending this month, and profit of $5.43 on sales of $35.2 billion next fiscal year. Although that’s a big drop in sales growth on the top line, from 36 percent this year to just eight percent next year, Gardner thinks Apple’s products will give it an edge in all its markets.

Gardner says all the upside in 2009 will come from the iPhone. While Apple’s Mac sales will decline three percent in the fiscal year ending September 2009, and its iPod sales will decline 12 percent, “iPhones shipped in FY08 will contribute $1.8B of incremental revenue in FY09, or 70 percent of the total revenue growth we now model for FY09," he says. That’s because Apple defers much of the revenue from iPhone for months out, per the analyst. Gardner reduced his estimate for iPhone units for next fiscal year to 18.5 million from 21 million.

"Macsimum News" is a proud supporter of Planet Gumbo, which feeds the hungry. We urge you to help them in their efforts.